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Duke vs. Miami prediction, odds, line, spread: 2022 ACC Tournament picks, best bets from proven model

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Four teams remain in the 2022 ACC Tournament, with two semifinal matchups set for Friday at Barclays Center. The Duke Blue Devils enter as the No. 1 seed, and they are 27-5 overall and 17-4 in ACC play this season. Duke is 8-1 in the last nine games, and the Blue Devils face a Miami (Fla.) team that triumphed over Boston College in the quarterfinals. The Hurricanes are 23-9 overall and 15-6 in conference games.

Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET in Brooklyn. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Blue Devils as nine-point favorites, while the over-under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 150 in the latest Duke vs. Miami odds. Before making any Miami vs. Duke picks, be sure to check out the college basketball predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.

The model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. Over the past five-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated an impressive profit of almost $1,600 for $100 players on its top-rated college basketball picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Duke vs. Miami, and just revealed its picks and CBB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are the college basketball odds and betting lines for Miami vs. Duke:

  • Duke vs. Miami spread: Duke -9
  • Duke vs. Miami over-under: 150 points
  • Duke vs. Miami money line: Duke -450, Miami +350
  • MIA: The Hurricanes are 14-7 against the spread in ACC games
  • DUKE: The Blue Devils are 11-10 against the spread in ACC games

Featured Game | Duke Blue Devils vs. Miami (Fla.) Hurricanes

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Why Miami can cover

The Hurricanes are prolific on offense. Miami is No. 2 in the ACC in offensive efficiency, and the Hurricanes are in the top 20 nationally. Two-point shooting is a notable strength, with Miami making 55 percent of shots inside the 3-point arc, and the Hurricanes are No. 8 in the country in turnover rate at 14.3 percent. Duke struggles to create turnovers, ranking last in the ACC in turnover creation rate and steal rate, and the Blue Devils are below-average on the defensive glass. 

On defense, Miami creates havoc, leading the ACC in both turnover creation rate (21.1 percent) and steal rate (14.3 percent). Duke is excellent on offense, but the Blue Devils are below-average at the free-throw line, and Duke is also No. 12 in the ACC in live-ball turnover rate, which could be exploited by Miami’s aggressive defense.

Why Duke can cover

Duke is dynamic and impressive on offense. The Blue Devils are in the top five of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and Duke has the best offensive profile in the ACC this season. Duke leads the conference in offensive rebound rate, securing 33.1 percent of missed shots, and the Blue Devils also win the possession battle with a top-20 national mark in turnover rate at 14.9 percent. Duke is in the top 15 of the country in shooting efficiency, making 37.6 percent of 3-point attempts and 55.4 percent of 2-point attempts, and Miami struggles to slow opponents on the defensive glass. 

With the offense setting the tone, Duke is also stout on defense. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in defensive efficiency and 3-point defense, with opponents shooting only 29.2 percent from long distance. Duke is also in the top two of the conference in free-throw rate allowed, 2-point defense and block rate, with Miami landing near the bottom of the ACC in offensive rebounding.

How to make Miami vs. Duke picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total. It also says one side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time. You can only get the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Duke vs. Miami? And which side of the spread hits almost 60 percent of the time? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the spread to jump on, all from the advanced model that is up almost $1,600 on its top-rated college basketball spread picks over the last five-plus years, and find out.

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