A recent Fox News poll shows Donald Trump pulling ahead of Kamala Harris in a 4-point swing, shaking up the dynamics of the presidential race.
The poll, conducted between October 11 and 14 among 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, shows that Trump is leading Harris by 2 points among registered and likely voters, on 50 percent to her 48 percent, a 4-point swing from when Harris was leading Trump by 2 points a month ago.
Although Trump has seen a jump in the polls, his lead is still within the margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Meanwhile, Harris is ahead by 6 points among voters from the seven key battleground states, according to Fox News.
The figures are some of the best numbers for Trump in a Fox News poll since he became the Republican nominee. Fox News’ August survey showed the former president up by just 1 point.
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The shift in favor of Trump has largely been driven by a rise in support among white voters, who now back him by 10 points, up from 4 points last month and 6 points in August. He is also seeing record support among voters aged 65 and older (49 percent) and those with a college degree (48 percent). Meanwhile, Harris is experiencing her lowest levels of support since becoming the nominee among Black voters (67 percent), college graduates (49 percent), voters aged 65 and older (47 percent), and white voters with a college degree (46 percent).
“Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters,” said Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw. “However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.”
The poll shows that two-thirds of Harris and Trump supporters say they are “extremely” motivated to vote. But a larger portion of Trump’s supporters say they are voting for him rather than against Harris, compared to the vice president’s supporters. Among Harris supporters, two-thirds describe their vote as for her, but one-third say it is against Trump. Among Trump supporters, 80 percent say they are voting for him rather than against Harris (18 percent).
Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Trump has generally been seeing a shift in the polls in his favor. RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker last week showed that Michigan had flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29. Nevada and Pennsylvania have also gone Republican. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver‘s forecast showed last week that 19 states had shifted in the former president’s favor.
The polls are still very close, especially in swing states, where the candidates are within 1 or 2 points of each other. On Wednesday, Silver’s forecast showed for the first time that Donald Trump and Harris now essentially have an equal chance of winning in November, with Harris standing at 50.1 percent, compared to Trump’s 49.7 percent.
It comes as Harris’ odds of victory in the election dropped by about 6 percentage points since late September, with Trump gaining in 19 states, according to Silver’s forecast.
“The forecast is really close. After another day of polls showing an essentially tied race in the Midwestern battlegrounds, it’s now literally 50/50,” Silver wrote on his website.