Donald Trump is rapidly closing the gap on Kamala Harris in one of the most closely watched election forecasts.
As the 2024 presidential race tightens, new data shows Trump’s chances of winning in November are at their highest since August 11, with FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator showing that he has a 47 percent chance of winning. It gives Harris a 53 percent chance, down from a high of 64 percent on September 18.
Since Harris took over as the Democratic candidate at the end of July, after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign, polls have looked largely positive for the vice president, with national surveys showing her leading Trump by as much as 7 points.
Harris’ lead marked a reversal of fortunes for Trump, who was previously leading Biden in the polls. FiveThirtyEight’s election simulator shows that Harris has been predicted to win against Trump since August 8, just over two weeks after Biden dropped out. Recent polls, however, suggest the gap between Trump and Harris is starting to close.
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Newsweek contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
The most recent ActiVote poll, conducted October 3-8, showed Trump was in the lead nationally by 1.2 points. In ActiVote’s poll from September, Harris led Trump by 5.4 points. Both polls surveyed 1,000 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. The October survey was the first national poll to give Trump a lead since September 22.
Polls in some of the swing states have also looked positive for Trump, with RealClearPolitics’ poll tracker showing that Michigan has flipped in favor of Trump for the first time since July 29, with the former president half a point ahead in the state.
It comes amid newly released polling from Quinnipiac University that showed Trump was 4 points ahead in Michigan in a head-to-head matchup and 3 points ahead with third party candidates included. It also showed that Trump was ahead by 2 points in Wisconsin. Harris has lead both states since the end of July, according to FiveThirtyEight.
The poll put Harris 2 points ahead in Pennsylvania in a head to head matchup, and 3 points ahead when third party candidates were included. It surveyed 1,007 likely voters and had a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.
In Quinnipiac University’s September 18 poll, Harris held a lead in Pennsylvania, a slight lead in Michigan, and the race was essentially tied in Wisconsin.
“That was then, this is now. The Harris post-debate starburst dims to a glow as Harris enters the last weeks slipping slightly in the Rust Belt,” Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy said in a press release.
Polling, including the latest Emerson College survey, shows Trump ahead in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. And according to Nate Silver‘s poll tracker as well as FiveThirtyEight’s tracker, he is between 1 and 2 points ahead in each state.
While the gap between Harris and Trump in the polls may be getting smaller, some surveys suggest the Harris campaign is still gaining traction with a month to go until the election.
The latest Cygnal poll, conducted October 2-3, showed Harris leading Trump by 3.3 points, 50.3 percent to his 47 percent. That was up from an August 7 poll, which showed the vice president 0.6 point ahead of Trump, 47.6 percent to his 47 percent, and a September 5 poll, which showed she was 2.1 points ahead, with 49 percent of the vote, while Trump had 46.9 percent.
Another poll, conducted by Morning Consult October 4-6, put Harris 6 points ahead after previous surveys showed her lead was between 2 and 5 points.
According to aggregator FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker, Harris holds a 2.6 point national lead over Trump. In pollster Nate Silver’s tracker, she is 3 points ahead.
Nonetheless, Harris’ chances depend on winning the swing states, which are very close and are ultimately anybody’s to win.
Harris needs 44 electoral votes from toss-up states to secure victory, while Trump would require 51. If Harris won Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, she would reach the electoral threshold needed for a win.
FiveThirtyEight’s forecast predicts Harris will win in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska’s 2nd District with 273 votes, which would give her just enough votes to take her over the line, while Trump will win in Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, which will give him 265 votes overall.
RealClearPolitics’ forecast shows that, with no toss-up states, Harris will win in Nevada, Wisconsin and Nebraska’s 2nd District, while Trump will win in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him an overall win of 296 Electoral College votes to Harris’ 242.